Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management: Conceptual models and hazard assessment

摘要: Hazard assessment attempts to answer the question. ‘What can go wrong?’. A hazard is a situation that in particular circumstance could lead harm (Royal Society 1983). identification process of creating an exhaustive list hazards. It involves documenting all events with unwanted outcomes may result from natural circumstances, proposal or human activity. estimates consequences those hazards, if they were occur. relies on understanding cause and effect. This chapter outlines role conceptual models summarizing ideas providing platform for identifying alternative management options. describes several methods developed applied mostly engineering contexts, but which have much broader utility. evaluates their strengths weaknesses provides some examples environmental applications. Conceptual All steps risk assessment, including depend decent model. Models are abstractions. They represent how we think world works. We build specific questions, assist us making decisions. As was outlined Chapter 3, purpose model determines its structure limits. The kind complexity compromise between questions available time, expertise knowledge. responsibility person who builds communicate full range uncertainties assumptions.