Modeling fecundity in birds: Conceptual overview, current models, and considerations for future developments

摘要: Abstract Fecundity is fundamental to the fitness, population dynamics, conservation, and management of birds. For all efforts made measure fecundity or its surrogates over past century avian research, it still mismeasured, misrepresented, misunderstood. Fundamentally, these problems arise because partial observability underlying processes such as renesting, multiple brooding, temporary emigration. Over last several decades, various analytical approaches have been developed estimate from incomplete biased data. These, include scalar arithmetic formulae, differential equations, individual-based simulations, Markov chain methodology. In this paper, we: (1) identify component reproduction; (2) review existing methods for modeling fecundity; (3) place diverse models under a common conceptual framework; (4) describe parameterization, validation, limitations models; (5) point out future considerations challenges in application models. We hope synthesis literature will help direct researchers toward most appropriate assess reproductive success answering questions evolutionary ecology, natural history, toxicology, management.