Monte Carlo analysis of the effect of spatial distribution of storms on prioritization of flood source areas

摘要: Implementation of structural and non-structural flood control measures in flood-prone watersheds is on increasing demand. Different watershed areas are not necessarily hydrologically similar impose variable effects the outlet flow hydrograph. Meanwhile, prioritization terms generation essential for economic planning. Previous works have focused definition a index that quantifies contribution each subwatershed unit or grid cell to hydrograph through application response (UFR) approach. In present research, first time, effect spatial pattern storm events variation was assessed via Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. To do so, UFR approach carried out large number randomly generated rainfall pattern. The proposed methodology adopted Tangrah northern Iran. frequently hit by floods historically caused loss life properties. results indicated more frequent events, quite sensitive distribution such highest ranked (SW6), standardized values (i.e., range) decreases from 1.0 0.5 when depth increases 20 150 mm, respectively. further revealed mm would cause subwatersheds’ indices diminish. implications if designed with lower return periods, an analysis required identify range variations.