Copula-based risk assessment of drought in Yunnan province, China

摘要: Yunnan is one of the provinces which had been frequently and heavily affected by drought disasters in China. Recently, large severe droughts struck Yunnan, caused considerable social, economic ecological losses. A risk assessment meteorological for province provided this study. Based on daily data 29 stations during 1960–2010, duration severity as two major characteristics, defined runs composite index, are abstracted from observed events. Three bivariate Archimedean copulas employed to construct joint distributions characteristics. error analysis tail dependence coefficient, Gumbel–Hougaard copula selected analyze spatial return periods drought. The results indicate that a high middle parts northeast province, while relative lower northwest province. probabilistic properties can provide useful information water resources planning management.