Time-varying relationships between land use and crime: A spatio-temporal analysis of small-area seasonal property crime trends

摘要: Neighborhood land use composition influences the geographical patterns of property crime. Few studies, however, have investigated if, and how, relationships between crime change over time. This research applies a Bayesian spatio-temporal regression model to analyze 12 seasons at small-area scale. Time-varying coefficients estimate seasonally varying distinguish both time-constant season-specific effects. Seasonal trends are commonly hypothesized be associated with fluctuating routine activity around specific uses, but past studies do not quantify time-varying effects neighborhood characteristics on risk. Results show that, accounting for sociodemographic contexts, parks more positively during spring summer seasons, eating drinking establishments autumn winter se...