Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate

摘要: [1] Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice conditions often rely on statistical relationships a set predictors that have shown skill for historical conditions. However, with rapid changes occurring in the climate, it is unclear whether these will remain valid. Here, preindustrial control, present-day and 20th–21st century climate model integrations are used to assess end-of-summer extent under various changing Of importance future forecasting systems, we find variance September anomalies explained by winter-spring predictors, such as area basin thin cover, increases during transition seasonally ice-covered Arctic. In contrast, summer atmospheric circulation variability plays decreasingly important role explaining cover anomalies. These primarily related climate-dependent location