Uncertainty of debris flow mobility relationships and its influence on the prediction of inundated areas

摘要: Abstract Empirical mobility relationships can be used for delineating debris flow inundated areas. A database of documented events in alpine mountain catchments northeastern Italy is to test the model DFlowz ( Berti and Simoni, 2007 ). We back-analyzed 25 DF events, ranging volume from 3000 350,000 m 3 , with support high resolution topographic information derived LiDAR. The analysis makes use an objective methodology evaluating accuracy predictions involves calibration based on factors describing uncertainty associated empirical relationships. Results indicate that capable reproducing observed behavior a maximum factor 3. most relevant source error lies estimation deposited volumes which affects results back-calculation mainly responsible also scatter On contrary, influence different properties depositional process appears play minor role as mutual relations between three main scaling parameters (volume, area, cross-sectional area) are respected vast majority cases calibrated coefficients show no significant relationship angle reach deposit.