Rock avalanche runout prediction using stochastic analysis of a regional dataset

摘要: Rock avalanches involve extremely rapid, flow-like movement of fragmented rock with extreme destructive potential. With increasing development pressures in mountainous regions, there is a need for simple, stochastic estimates runout distances to aid hazard assessments and prioritize sites more detailed investigation. To support the an empirical predictive tool, systematic method was used describe 49 Canadian Cordillera, which had been documented literature but not previously compiled into regional inventory. These cases were described using measured or estimated numerical values volume, fall height, length, total impacted area ratio over length (referred as mean path width), qualitative descriptions topographic confinement, substrate material source geology. Linear regressions fit data, attributes treated indicator variables. A strong relationship found distance predicted from height lateral confinement. second width volume. relationships converted survival functions estimate exceedance probability probability. implemented computer called Probabilistic Runout Estimator—Rock Avalanche (PRE-RA), can be spatial impact ranges avalanche runout. An application this tool demonstrated two recent avalanches, dataset statistical relationships.