Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species’ distribution and abundance changes

摘要: The responses of animals and plants to recent climate change vary greatly from species species, but attempts understand this variation have met with limited success. This has led concerns that predictions are inherently uncertain because the complexity interacting drivers biotic interactions. However, we show for an exemplar group 155 Lepidoptera about 60% among in their abundance trends over past four decades can be explained by species-specific exposure sensitivity change. Distribution changes were less well predicted, nonetheless, up 53% was explained. We found overall respond different components despite ostensibly experiencing same changes. Hence, undergone levels population “forcing” (exposure), driving national-scale distribution trends. conclude species’ may more predictable than previously recognized.