Land abandonment as a precursor of built-up development at the sprawling periphery of former socialist cities

摘要: Abstract In former socialist countries, as cities expanded they permeated into nearby agricultural areas. The periphery then became a mosaic of built-up and patches. Due to small sizes, inconvenient shapes scattered locations, the parcels often unprofitable for use, were later abandoned frequently transformed Our paper aims assess whether land abandonment can be considered valid precursor development. Bucharest was chosen study area, analyzed over period 11 years (2002–2013) based on data sets derived from aerial images. Logistic regression models used test significant explanatory variable development along with other socio-economic, urban planning variables. results showed that has potential It acts within cause effect framework, being influenced by ongoing economic transformations, changes in regulations. Its addition an prediction model significantly increased power, which makes it useful use change scenarios. type observed at areas follows different pathway compared remote or rural Here, is result anticipated higher profits through new opportunities urbanization. Monitoring sprawl could enable local authorities evaluate outcomes policies incentives.