Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

摘要: Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by considerable uncertainty associated with projections and its impacts complex interactions between social ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature this challenge has resulted calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools can support natural decision making interactions. We respond to call first reviewing three methods have proven useful research, but whose application development been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, simulation modeling. Species models provide data- driven estimates future distributions interest, they several limitations their output alone not sufficient guide decisions how best manage resources given economic considerations along dynamic uncertain conditions. Researchers managers are increasingly exploring potential futures social-ecological systems through process often lacks quantitative response modeling validation procedures. Simulation well placed added rigor planning because ability reproduce system dynamics, scenarios options explored simulations developed stakeholders, there a clear consensus on include model outputs. see these strengths weaknesses as complementarities offer an framework integrating tools. then describe ways which help shift from usable.