Scenario development to explore the future of Europe's rural areas

摘要: Abstract Changes in rural areas, such as depopulation and land abandonment, but also intensification loss of biodiversity, usually proceed very slowly yet are often irreversible. A scenario study (called EURURALIS) was carried out by Wageningen University Research Centre combination with the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) to stimulate strategic discussion among both national policy makers at European Union level on future Europe's areas role instruments. After a review previous studies, choice made elaborate scenarios, built 2 × 2 matrix, where axes represent most critical uncertainties. The four scenarios were structured along two axes: (1) ranging from increasing globalisation world regional economic cultural blocks (2) lean governments ambitious government regulation. storylines inspired earlier work emission Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (SRES), GEO-3 Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). current includes 25 EU member states had time horizon up 2030. quantified chain models, global models spatially explicit model, which simulated use 1 km × 1 km grid whole EU. their outcomes presented means CD. This paper describes steps taken, proceeding general aim set-up then actual quantification scenarios. three other articles this issue.