Compensated cirrhosis: natural history and prognostic factors.

摘要: To investigate the natural history of compensated cirrhosis, 293 consecutive patients without previous major complications (ascites, jaundice, encephalopathy or gastrointestinal hemorrhage) were studied in terms morbidity (probability developing decompensated cirrhosis during follow-up) and survival. Patients diagnosed by liver histology between 1968 1980. Median follow-up was 63 months. Decompensation considered when a patient first developed one disease. Ten years after diagnosis, probability survival rate 58 47%, respectively. A multivariate analysis (Cox's regression model) using clinical, biochemical histological data obtained at diagnosis disclosed seven factors that predicted prognosis: serum bilirubin; gamma-globulin concentration; hepatic stigmata; prothrombin time; sex; age, alkaline phosphatase. According to contribution each these final model, prognostic index constructed allows calculation estimated probability. The predicting value this validated split sample testing technique.