An Epidemiological Approach to the Spread of Political Third Parties

摘要: Third political parties are influential in shaping American politics. In this work we study the spread of a third party ideology voting population where assume that members/activists more recruiting new voters than non-member voters. The uses an epidemiological metaphor to develop theoretical model with nonlinear ordinary differential equations as applied case study, Green Party. Considering long-term behavior, identify three threshold parameters our describe different possible scenarios for and its spread. We also apply Party's growth using registration data six states District Columbia explain trends over past decade. Our system produces backward bifurcation helps conditions under which sufficiently dedicated activist core can enable thrive, would not normally allow it arise. results critical role activists play sustaining grassroots movements adverse conditions.