Estimating effects of physical distancing on the COVID-19 pandemic using an urban mobility index

摘要: Background: Governments have implemented population-wide physical distancing measures to control COVID-19, but metrics evaluating their effectiveness are not readily available. Methods: We used a publicly available mobility index from popular transit application evaluate the effect of on infection growth rates and reproductive numbers in 40 jurisdictions between March 23 April 12, 2020. Findings: A 10% decrease was associated with 14.6% (exp(β) = 0.854; 95% credible interval: 0.835, 0.873) average daily rate -0.061 (95% CI: -0.071, -0.052) change instantaneous number two weeks later. Interpretation: Our analysis demonstrates that decreases urban were predictive declines epidemic growth. Mobility offer an appealing method calibrate population-level policy implementation, especially as relax restrictions consider alternative strategies. Funding: No external funding received for this study.