Outlook for the development of European forest resources; a study prepared for the European Forest Sector Outlook Study (EFSOS)

摘要: This Outlook for the Development of European Forest Resources provides methodologies, data, scenarios, and results outlook on forest resources from 2000 to 2040. The aim this resource study was analyse impacts under level fellings needed fulfil derived roundwood demand according two scenarios as provided by market modelling project within EFSOS framework. Thus removals presented in cannot be identified with a wood supply forecast economic terms. includes available (FAWS) geographical Europe, i.e. Ireland Ural mountains northern tip Lapland southern border Turkey. model outcomes are based assumptions about increase FAWS well unchanged management regimes (e.g. rotation period, thinning intensity, afforestation), growth stands ratios between felling over analysed period. Although assumed rise significantly, sketch large increasing Europe. growing stock increases baseline scenario 51 billion m3 o.b. 63 2040, whereas net annual increment declines only slightly current 1.2 o.b 1.15 area is decrease 335 million ha 329 year base scenario. In alternative expected 343 ha. projected fast required study. foreseen 643 per 847 2020 (1014 alternative). This, together an approach that dynamically simulates age class development, shows availability may hampered after 2020. actual 2036-2040 were 2% lower than fellings, difference 11% year. reality mechanisms will take care difference, adjusting prices, forestry especially trade, considering legal restriction, which assure sustainable management. These adjustments simulated system.