Analysing scenario approaches for forest management — One decade of experiences in Europe

摘要: In forest management, scenarios are often used to envision what the future might look like account for uncertainties associated with, example, climate change, changing socio-economic conditions, and technological developments. There are, however, many different methodological approaches scenario building. order be able make better use of diversity at hand, a systematic overview methodologies, which is currently missing in sector, needed. This paper analysed reviewed 129 forest-management-related studies that have been carried out Europe during past decade. The were classified by means cluster analysis four groups: (1) management scenarios, (2) environmental (3) optimization (4) participatory scenarios. Despite differences between groups, almost all can characterized as rather quantitative, non-participatory, single factor nature. also found temporal trend reflecting broadening methodology over time towards incorporate longer horizons, issues on larger scale, including land-use considerations. Considering complexity urgency need addressed opportunities offered methodologies not yet fully used, we expect see further with mixed-method, participatory, complex