The transition towards renewable energies: physical limits and temporal conditions

摘要: Abstract The perspectives of the depletion fossil energy resources, together with consequences climate change, have provoked development numerous national and pluri-national policies. However, there been few overall studies on evolution these resources. This paper uses a dynamic model to study exhaustion patterns world nuclear fuels their possible replacement by renewable sources. results show that peak oil will be first restriction it not easily overcome. Electric vehicles can produce some interesting savings, but they are insufficient avoid decline in oil. Biofuels even more limited, due enormous extensions fertile land require low productivity. shows overcoming need much ambitious policies than mere substitution technology. If “oil–economy” relationship does change substantially, economic growth may seriously limited or negative. In contrast, production electrical is such worrying problem short middle-term.