More growth? An unfeasible option to overcome critical energy constraints and climate change

摘要: Growing scientific evidence shows that world energy resources are entering a period shaped by the depletion of high-quality fuels, whilst decline easy-to-extract oil is widely recognized ongoing phenomenon. The end era cheap and abundant flows brings issue economic growth into question, stimulating research for alternatives as de-growth proposal. present paper applies system dynamic global model WoLiM allows economic, climate dynamics to be analyzed in an integrated way. results show that, if paradigm maintained, decrease fossil fuel extraction can only partially compensated renewable energies, alternative policies efficiency improvements, very likely causing systemic shortage next decades. If massive transition coal would promoted try compensate gas maintain growth, then deeply disturbed. suggest globalization scenarios are, not undesirable from environmental point view, but also feasible. Furthermore, regionalization without abandoning current GDP focus set grounds pessimistic panorama view peace, democracy equity. In this sense, organized material North followed steady state up valid framework achieve future human welfare sustainability. exercise qualitatively illustrates magnitude challenge: most industrialized countries should reduce, on average, their per capita primary use rate at least four times roughly global average levels. Differently dominant perceptions, these consumption reductions might actually enhancing. However, attainment targets require deep structural changes socioeconomic systems combination with radical shift geopolitical relationships.