Data specialization for plant specific risk studies

作者: G. Apostolakis , S. Kaplan , B.J. Garrick , R.J. Duphily

DOI: 10.1016/0029-5493(80)90133-8

关键词: MathematicsSpecific riskSpecialization (logic)EconometricsBayes' theorem

摘要: Abstract Bayes' theorem is used to derive plant specific distributions for the failure rates of components. Methods are suggested derivation generic from information that appears in literature. These as prior and they modified using data. The posterior thus derived can be inputs a risk analysis.

参考文章(5)
George Apostolakis, Ali Mosleh, Expert Opinion and Statistical Evidence: An Application to Reactor Core Melt Frequency Nuclear Science and Engineering. ,vol. 70, pp. 135- 149 ,(1979) , 10.13182/NSE79-A19646
Robert L. Winkler, William Lee Hays, Statistics : probability, inference, and decision ,(1975)
George Apostolakis, Yum Tong Lee, Methods for the estimation of confidence bounds for the top-event unavailability of fault trees Nuclear Engineering and Design. ,vol. 41, pp. 411- 419 ,(1977) , 10.1016/0029-5493(77)90082-6
Ramona B. Swaine, Bruno deFinetti, Theory of Probability Journal of the American Statistical Association. ,vol. 23, pp. 204- ,(1976) , 10.2307/1268047
R. C. Campbell, D. V. Lindley, Introduction to Probability and Statistics from a Bayesian Viewpoint Biometrics. ,vol. 22, pp. 197- ,(1966) , 10.2307/2528230