A systematic review of participatory scenario planning to envision mountain social-ecological systems futures

摘要: Mountain social-ecological systems (MtSES) provide crucial ecosystem services to over half of humanity. However, populations living in these highly varied regions are now confronted by global change. It is critical that they able anticipate change strategically manage resources and avoid potential conflict. Yet, planning for sustainable, equitable transitions the future a daunting task, considering range uncertainties unique character MtSES. Participatory scenario (PSP) can help MtSES communities critically reflecting on wider array innovative pathways adaptive transformation. Although design effective approaches has been widely discussed, how PSP employed yet be examined. Here, we present first systematic review single- multiscalar, multisectoral undertaken MtSES, which characterize process, identify strengths gaps, suggest ways apply We used nine-step process guide analysis 42 studies from 1989 screened articles. Our results indicate steady increase relevant since 2006, with 43% published between 2015 2017. These encompass 39 countries, 50% Europe. predominantly build cooperation, social learning, collaboration, decision support, meeting objectives hindered insufficient engagement intended end users. focused largely envisioning themes governance, economy, land use change, biodiversity, but overlooked such as gender equality, public health, sanitation. There many avenues expand improve MtSES: other regions, sectors, across greater diversity stakeholders, specific focus paradoxes. Communicating uncertainty, monitoring evaluating impacts, engendering more comparative further utility addressing challenges, lessons complex systems.