On the treatment of uncertainty and variability in making decisions about risk.

摘要: Much attention has been paid to the treatment of dependence and characterization uncertainty variability (including issue among inputs) in performing risk assessments avoid misleading results. However, with relatively little progress communicating about effects implications dependence, effort involved sophisticated analyses (e.g., two-dimensional Monte Carlo that separate from uncertainty) may be largely wasted, if those are not clearly understood by decisionmakers. This article emphasizes epistemic can introduce related risks different individuals, or at facilities), illustrates potential importance such context two important types decisions--evaluations acceptability for a single technology, comparisons more technologies. We also present some preliminary ideas on how communicate decisionmakers clear easily comprehensible manner, suggest future research directions this area.