Simulation of rice brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stal.) population and crop-pest interactions to assess climate change impact

摘要: Brown planthopper (BPH), Nilaparvata lugens (Stal.) development studied at six constant temperatures, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31 and 33 ±1 °C on rice plants revealed that developmental period from egg hatching to adult longevity decreased 46.8 18.4 days as temperature increased 19 31 °C. Through regression of rate temperature, thermal small nymph (1st-2nd instar), large (3rd–5th instar) were determined be 126.6, 140.8 161.3 degree days (DD), respectively with corresponding threshold being 8.8, 9.5 9.6 °C. A constant-based mechanistic-hemimetabolous-population model was adapted for BPH linked InfoCrop, a crop simulation simulate climate change impact both the pest population crop-pest interactions. The validated field data New Delhi Aduthurai (Tamil Nadu, India), (R 2 = 0.96, RMSE = 1.87 %). Climate-change-impact assessment through coupled BPH-InfoCrop model, in light projected climate-change scenario Indian subcontinent, showed decline 3.5 9.3–14 % by 2020 2050, respectively, during rainy season Delhi, while exhibited only 2.1–3.5 % winter 2050. is attributed reduction fecundity survival which otherwise not possible account an empirical model. Concomitant its decline, BPH-induced yield loss also indicated declining trend rise. However, study considered effect CO2 rise yield, probable changes feeding adaptive capacity pest.