Impacts of the 2015 Heat Waves on Mortality in the Czech Republic-A Comparison with Previous Heat Waves.

摘要: This study aimed to assess the impacts of heat waves during summer 2015 on mortality in Czech Republic and compare them with those back previous record-breaking 1994. We analyzed daily natural-cause across country's entire population. A baseline was determined using generalized additive models adjusted for long-term trends, seasonal weekly cycles, identified waves. Mortality deviations from were calculated quantify excess waves, defined as periods at least three consecutive days mean temperature higher than 95th percentile annual distribution. The total duration well their load. Consequently, impact major wave increase relative greater 1994 (265% vs. 240%). Excess comparable among younger age group (0-64 years) elderly (65+ while it significantly larger 2015. results suggest that load a needs be considered when assessing its mortality, cumulative factor explains magnitude better other characteristics such or average wave. Comparison suggests recently reported decline overall heat-related Central Europe has abated simple extrapolation trend would lead biased conclusions even near future. Further research is needed toward understanding additional mitigation measures required prevent elsewhere.