Shorebird patches as fingerprints of fractal coastline fluctuations due to climate change

摘要: The Florida coast is one of the most species-rich ecosystems in world. This paper focuses on sensitivity habitat threatened and endangered shorebirds to sea level rise induced by climate change, relationship with coastline evolution. We consider resident Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus), migrant Piping melodus) Red Knot (Calidris canutus) along Gulf Coast Mexico Florida. analyze model coupled dynamics patches these imperiled shoreline geomorphology dictated land cover change consideration coastal wetlands. modeled from 2006 2100 as a function A1B scenario rescaled 2 m. Using maximum-entropy suitability set macroecological criteria we delineate breeding wintering for each year simulated. Evidence ecogeomorphological was found considering fractal dimension shorebird occurrence patterns coastline. A scaling between dimensions species detected. predicted power law patch size emerged scale-free validated against 9 years observations. predict an overall 16% loss landforms inundation. Despite changes that cause loss, fragmentation, variations connectivity, self-organize preserving power-law distribution time. Yet, probability finding large be smaller than 2006. showed highest fluctuation dimension; thus, it at greatest risk decline. propose parsimonious modeling framework capture macroscale ecosystems. Our results suggest potential use fingerprint climatic effects shoreline-dependent species. Thus, metric aid decision-makers conservation interventions subjected or other anthropic stressors affect their habitat.