Selecting Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Influenza

摘要: Models of influenza transmission have focused on the ability vaccination, antiviral therapy, and social distancing strategies to mitigate epidemics. Influenza transmission, however, may also be interrupted by hygiene interventions such as frequent hand washing wearing masks or respirators. We apply a model disease that incorporates interventions. The describes population mixing Poisson process, probability infection upon contact between an infectious susceptible person is parameterized p. While modify rates in population, Public health decision making involves tradeoffs, we introduce objective function considers direct costs new infections determine optimum intervention type (social versus intervention) compliance for epidemic mitigation. Significant simplifications been made these models. However, demonstrate method feasible, provides plausible results, sensitive selection parameters. Specifically, show combination nonpharmaceutical depends infection, compliance, duration infectiousness. Means which realism can increased are discussed.