Unemployment Expectations, Information, and Voting: Experimental and Administrative Micro-Evidence

摘要: Voters differ in their assessment of the economy, both retrospectively and prospectively. In this paper, we examine whether voters’ subjective forecasts economy assessments individual unemployment risk affect how they vote, or if reflect, rather than cause, partisan leanings. We employ a unique Danish dataset comprising panel surveys, survey experiment, detailed administrative registry data on individuals. demonstrate considerable heterogeneity individuals’ aggregate rate show these are formed by voter characteristics own expectations about combination with local industry economic conditions. randomly allocated treatment that influences an instrumental variable approach. Based this, reject endogeneity show, least squares setting, sociotropic have causal effect voting behavior. Finally, our results consistent affecting voting. However, reverse is not true: controlling for fine-grained circumstances, do find significant effects from identity perceptions risk.