Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011

摘要: While the economic vote exists in Western democracies, question of its stability remains a subject controversy. This article focuses on two possible factors behind instability observed: endogeneity problem and restricted variance problem. The former concerns influence partisan thinking perception, while latter crisis, when virtually all voters may perceive bad economy. These problems are examined using panel data from Spanish national elections 2008 2011. After various causality tests, it is concluded that was influential both contests, but apparently less so It shown initial 2011 result misleads because statistical artifact presented by Thus, an alternative strategy for exogenising perceptions developed aggregate measures pooled cross-sectional design whereby demonstrated economy mattered greatly under crisis estimation could be applicable to other democracies experiencing such crisis.