Forecasting conservation impact to pinpoint spatial priorities in the Brazilian Cerrado

摘要: Abstract Proper assessing the impacts of conservation interventions can create interaction spaces between researcher and implementation. For example, protected areas (PAs) are main strategy to conserve biodiversity, but there is a widespread bias in their location towards unproductive inaccessible lands. Thus, investments on PAs likely have been allocated that did not need protection, at least short term, creating communication noise society. Here, we estimate impact recently established (2002–2012) indigenous lands (ILs) future scenario land use projected 2050. We selected were similar PAs/ILs with positive propose spatial priorities aiming minimize loss Cerrado vegetation future. In our analyses, general those strict protection had significantly lower conversion rates than control areas, while sustainable ILs showed no difference areas. find differences values ILs, higher for found high density potential priority maximize northern Cerrado. This region next agricultural frontier biome, having extensive cover be legally converted according national legislation. By pinpointing based impact, improve benefit from increase space interactions science, policymaking society large.