Logistic growth curve modeling of US energy production and consumption

摘要: Abstract This research used four-parameter multi-cycle logistic growth curve models on US Energy Information Agency annual data from 1949 to 2015 produce fixed condition forecasts of energy production and consumption 2040. These were assess the ability sources meet demand, anticipate technology challenges, make general policy recommendations. The indicated ongoing increases in total dominated by crude oil natural gas will likely peak 2017 (at 95.0 quadrillion “quad” BTU) then rapidly decrease through 2040 36.2 quad BTU), while an plateau 98.1 BTU). New cycles not evident certainly occur, mitigating decline before However, without adequate foresight preemptive action, it is possible that new would be reverse given historical trends. Therefore, addition continued efficiency, reductions use, implementation carbon management technologies, direct effort towards sustainable development substantial all (through investment resources) should a priority industry, makers, public alike.