Modelling the Dynamics of Feral Alfalfa Populations and Its Management Implications

摘要: Background Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics feral and determining suitable management options. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside alfalfa occurring southern Manitoba, Canada. The accounted existence density-dependence recruitment subsidy populations. used investigate long-term populations, evaluate effectiveness simulated strategies such as herbicide application mowing controlling alfalfa. Results suggest that habitats persistent less likely go extinct under current roadverge scenarios. Management attempts focused on adult plants alone counterproductive due presence density-dependent effects. Targeted application, which achieve complete control seedlings, rosettes established plants, will an effective strategy, but seedbank may contribute new recruits. In regions where is regularly practiced, devising timely strategy (early- mid-August Manitoba), one totally prevent seed production, feasible option managing Conclusions/Significance habitats. Timely or regular targeted limit feral-population-mediated gene flow However, context confinement, extent need managed dictated by tolerance levels specific production systems traits. modelling framework outlined this paper could applied other perennial herbaceous with similar life-history characteristics.