Distance to stable stage distribution in plant populations and implications for near‐term population projections

摘要: Summary 1. Matrix population models capture how variation in vital rates among life stages translates to dynamics. Analyses of these generally assume that populations have reached a stable stage distribution (SSD), where the proportion individuals each remains constant. However, when respond differentially environmental cues and perturbations, may be moved away from equilibrium. Given multitude stochastic processes acting natural systems, never exactly at SSD. It is thus critical understand far are SSD distance influences near-term model projections. 2. We analysed published matrix 46 plant species spanning range histories reported both current projection matrix. We examined between observed theoretical associated consequences for transient dynamics species. 3. In majority studies, were near their expected SSD, with 80% falling within one unit (α0) zero. This was skewed towards positive values α0, indicating had concentrated into high reproductive values. 4. Half our survey distances such projections size growth rate 10% asymptotic 5 years. > 2, deviations caused important (more than twofold) differences. 5. We also found larger positively correlated generation time size. 6. Synthesis. When some more strongly affected by disturbances or stresses others, results literature suggest equilibrium will tend underestimate account distribution. Measuring can help determine whether measures analyses reliable, crucial step take precise metrics necessary guiding conservation management.