European human-dominated landscapes provide ample space for the recolonization of large carnivore populations under future land change scenarios

作者: Pietro Milanesi , Frank Thomas Breiner , Felice Puopolo , Rolf Holderegger

DOI: 10.1111/ECOG.02223

关键词: Eurasian lynxMacroecologyGeographyHabitatEcological trapCarnivoreEcologyRange (biology)Ecological nicheUrsus

摘要: Europe is currently being re-colonized by large carnivore species such as brown bear (Ursus arctos), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and grey wolf (Canis lupus). Approximately one-third of hosts at least one these species: they show permanent occurrence in some regions sporadic without reproduction others. We investigated potential future range expansions three carnivores using different analyses. First, we compared niche overlap between the historical, current occurrences n-dimensional hypervolumes. Second, identified environmental variables that best explain differences through multi-model inference. Third, projected into across a land-use change scenarios. also determined refuges (i.e. sub-optimal habitat model, good human disturbance model) ecological traps model). In species, was higher historical than occurrences, found low occurrences. Between 20 24% (corresponding to 86,800 173,200 km2) could result settlement year 2040, while 17-24% 122,200 104,100 2.7-4.6% 11,800 28,400 are likely become traps, respectively. Factors affecting expansion activities, which were negatively related all species. light our results, human-dominated European landscapes provide ample space for recolonization carnivores. This article protected copyright. All rights reserved.

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