Effects of Non-Stationarity on Flood Frequency Analysis: Case Study of the Cheongmicheon Watershed in South Korea
作者： Sang Kim , Minwoo Son , Eun-Sung Chung , Xiao Yu
DOI: 10.3390/SU10051329
关键词: Water resources 、 Environmental science 、 Non stationarity 、 Watershed 、 Global warming 、 Climate change 、 Flood frequency analysis 、 Flood myth 、 Frequency analysis 、 Climatology
摘要: Due to global climate change, it is possible experience the new trend of flood in near future. Therefore, necessary consider impact change on when establishing sustainable water resources management policy. In order predict future events, frequency analysis commonly applied. Traditional methods for are based assumption stationarity, which questionable under although many techniques that stationarity have been developed. this study aims investigate and compare all corresponding effects three different data sets (observed, RCP 4.5, 8.5), two models (stationary non-stationary), procedures (rainfall first approach direct discharge approach). As a result, design from observed by stationary model rainfall can be concluded most reasonable. Thus, 8.5 non-stationary should carefully used establishment prevention measure while considering uncertainty.
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