Global megatrends and their implications for environmental assessment practice

作者: Francois Retief , Alan Bond , Jenny Pope , Angus Morrison-Saunders , Nicholas King

DOI: 10.1016/J.EIAR.2016.07.002

关键词: Environmental resource managementCommunications managementEnvironmental impact assessmentEnvironmental economicsUrbanizationUnexpected eventsEngineeringEarth system scienceAdaptabilityResilience (network)Adaptation (computer science)

摘要: This paper addresses the future of environmental assessment (EA) practice in light a rapidly changing world. We apply literature review-based methodology to firstly identify key global megatrends and then reflect upon implications for EA based on some known challenges. The identified are synthesised into six categories: i) demographics, ii) urbanization, iii) technological innovation, iv) power shifts, v) resource scarcity vi) climate change. discuss these against four challenges namely: dealing with complexity uncertainty, efficiency, significance communication participation. Our analysis suggests important such as: increased difficulties accuracy prediction; need facilitative adaptation; an increase occurrence unexpected events; higher expectations procedural efficiency; information management; judgements; mitigation amidst increasing pressures earth systems. underscore continued evolution thinking practice, especially moving away from seeking predictable single or outcome towards possibility multiple scenarios associated adaptability enhanced system resilience capable responding rapid

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