Adjustment of regional climate model output for modeling the climatic mass balance of all glaciers on Svalbard.

摘要: Large-scale modeling of glacier mass balance relies often on the output from regional climate models (RCMs). However, limited accuracy and spatial resolution RCM pose limitations simulations at subregional or local scales. Moreover, is still rarely available over larger regions for longer time periods. This study evaluates extent to which it possible derive reliable region-wide estimates, using coarse (10 km) model forcing. Our data cover entire Svalbard archipelago one decade. To calculate balance, we use an index-based model. Model parameters are not calibrated, but air temperature precipitation fields adjusted in situ measurements as reference. We compare two different calibration methods: root mean square error minimization regression optimization. The obtained shifts (+1.43°C versus +2.22°C) scaling factors (1.23 1.86) differ considerably between methods, attribute inhomogeneities spatiotemporal distribution reference data. suggests a annual climatic −0.05 ± 0.40 m w.e. a−1 2000–2011 equilibrium line altitude 452 ± 200 m  above sea level. find that forcing with respect real surface topography usage spatially homogeneous adjustments responsible much uncertainty. Sensitivity results parameter uncertainty comparably small minor importance.