Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

摘要: Abstract The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was create suite geospatial footprints portraying potential that can be used aid decision-makers in assessing impacts relative sustainability natural resources socio-ecological consequences proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed simulate different conditions: (i) Current Trends Scenario unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) Conservation with managed protect environment, (iii) Megalopolis which accentuated around defined international trade corridor. calibrated historical data extracted from time series satellite images. Model materials, methodology, results presented. predicts footprint approximately triple 2009 2050, corroborated by local population estimates. protecting 46% more Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) 95,000 acres Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, Wetlands classes combined. also depict preservation some these compared Scenario, most notably environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity areal extent cover types provide wildlife habitat were preserved under alternative when Trends.