Simulating urban expansion and scenario prediction using a cellular automata urban growth model, SLEUTH, through a case study of Karaj City, Iran

摘要: Understanding, analysis, monitoring and modeling of urban growth evolution as a major driving force land use/land cover transformation, especially in developing countries, is great importance for managers the process sustainable development. Using spatial predictive models change detection techniques can provide an additional level knowledge causes impacts mechanisms, which finally comprehensive insight into chronology. Karaj, capital Alborz province, has been experiencing substantial increase total area environments mainly due to its socioeconomic attractions during last three decades. The present work aims reveal how historical trend affect future pattern. For conducting this study, SLEUTH cellular automata model was executed via calibration steps including coarse, fine final. Relying on calibrated model, dynamics Karaj City were predicted under well two different scenarios compact extensive up year 2040. According findings while option indicates most consumption vacant lands, scenario dictates infill form addition saving spaces. Finally, forecasting based illustrates that human-constructed elements will be middle other scenarios.