Four Futures of the Netherlands; Production, labour and sectoral structure in four scenarios until 2040

摘要: Dutch policymakers are confronted by several strategic challenges that hold great significance for long-run economic perspectives. There is uncertainty regarding the scale of future bottlenecks and conditions under which they will occur. This study offers four scenarios with plausible developments economy at macro sectoral levels until 2040. The builds on Four Futures Europe, published CPB in 2003, describes Europe. contain a wide range results many variables. For instance, level GDP per capita 2040 be between 30% 120% higher than current level. high growth also characterised more inequality lower environmental quality. In all scenarios, ageing has negative effect—on labour supply employment ratio working to not-working population. An increase participation, especially women older workers, may counterbalance these effects. Sectoral shares shift strongly, particularly from agriculture manufacturing services health care. continuation process already been going decades.