Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management: Inference, decisions, monitoring and updating

摘要: Risk assessments are prey to unacknowledged ambiguity and vagueness, as well the psychological idiosyncracies social contexts of those involved. Chapters 1 4 outlined factors that lead people colour their judgements, including such things level personal control, visibility dreadfulness outcome. These frailties a number identifiable symptoms insensitivity sample size overconfidence (Fischhoff et al . 1981, 1982, Fischhoff 1995, Morgan 1996). Risk-based decisions should weight probability an incorrect decision by consequences error. The preceding chapters outline techniques can be used build models serve protect stakeholders, risk analysts, experts managers against some worst excesses own psychologies contexts. Once analytical phase assessment is complete, task remains interpret results, decide course action design feedback mechanisms will ensure decision-making capability improves through time. This chapter outlines methods have particular utility for monitoring environmental systems, providing information revise assumptions support decisions. Monitoring power sampling analysis determine compliance with standard or deviation from target prediction. It may undertaken gauge effectiveness policy legislation, test model assumptions, validate predictions.