Future Greenhouse Gas and Local Pollutant Emissions for India: Policy Links and Disjoints

摘要: This paper estimates the future greenhousegas (GHG) and local pollutant emissions forIndia under various scenarios. Thereference scenario assumes continuation ofthe current official policies of Indiangovernment forecasts macro-economic,demographic energy sector indicators.Other scenarios analyzed are economicgrowth (high low), carbonmitigation scenario, sulfur mitigationscenario frozen (development) scenario.The main insight is that GHG localpollutant from India, althoughconnected, do not move in synchronizationin have a disjoint variousscenarios. continue to risewhile decreaseafter some years. emission mitigationtherefore would be pursued for itsown sake India. National securityconcerns also favor this conclusion sincecoal abundant national resource whilemost natural gas has imported.The analysis contributing factors tothis indicates sulfurreduction petroleum oil products andpenetration flue desulfurisationtechnologies two contributorsfor dioxide (SO2) mitigation.The reduction particulate ismainly due enforcing electro-staticprecipitator efficiency norms industrialunits, with cleaner fuels vehicles alsocontributing substantially. These policytrends already visible India.Another high better than lower growth tomitigate pollution as lack ofinvestible resources limits investments incleaner environmental measures. Ouranalysis validates environmentalKuznets' curve India SO2emissions peak around per capita GDP ofUS$ 5,300–5,400 (PPP basis) variouseconomic