Optimal allocation of conservation resources to species that may be extinct.

摘要: Statements of extinction will always be uncertain because imperfect detection species in the wild. Two errors can made when declaring a extinct. Extinction declared prematurely, with resulting loss protection and management intervention. Alternatively, limited conservation resources wasted attempting to protect that no longer exists. Rather than setting an arbitrary level certainty at which declare extinction, we argue decision must trade off expected costs both errors. Optimal decisions depend on cost continued intervention, probability is extant, estimated value (the benefit times species). We illustrated our approach three examples: Dodo (Raphus cucullatus. ), Ivory-billed Woodpecker (U.S. subspecies Campephilus principalis principalis. mountain pygmy-possum (Burramys parvus. ). The dodo was extremely unlikely so managing monitoring for it today would not cost-effective unless high. woodpecker extant depended whether recent controversial sightings were accepted. Without sightings, optimal 1965 latest. Accepting continue until 2032 currently rapidly declining sighting rate. It conduct as many 66 surveys without before persistence remained high even after difficult determine extinct or undetected. If enough, intervention if likely ©2010 Society Conservation Biology.