"Probabilities of occurrence of large plate rupturing earthquakes for the San Andreas, San Jacinto, and Imperial faults, California,1983-2003""

摘要: The San Andreas, Jacinto, and Imperial faults in California are divided into 19 segments; conditional probabilities calculated that a particular segment will be the site of large plate rupturing earthquake, i.e., an event breaks entire down-dip extent seismogenic zone, during next 20 years. sizes such events, which account for most slip occurs seismically, appear to vary greatly different segments these faults. Repeat time shocks, coseismic displacement, moment release, rupture length, seismic magnitude correlate with one another function tectonic style parts those fault zones. Tectonic inhomogeneities on scale about 1 100 km much larger than displacement any single may regarded as being invariant their effects upon earthquake generation over many cycles shocks. It is this invariance appears lead given repeatedly events nearly same size. Since repeat varies, however, fault, simple probabilistic approach used forecast likelihood future earthquakes each segment, using input last shock, average recurrence time, standard deviation intervals between events. Dates shocks available investigated. times estimated from historic prehistoric similarity, shock by rate motion or strain buildup. close 1/3 three data earthquakes; normalized value adopted all calculations probability. Magnitudes moments segment. Several have well-constrained years, whereas others uncertainties. Eight segments, constituting 40% total lengths faults, moderate high probability thus should instrumented studied extensively so provide shorter warnings. In some cases two adjacent phase loading history break event. Andreas opposite Jose Juan Bautista, ruptured less 1.5 m 1906 probably also broke 1838, 6¾ ¼ A 325 section southern Tejon Pass Salton Sea has 25% chance near 8 All other only small (i.e., 5 10%) interval.