A model to search for birth probabilities of mammal populations using fertility data.
作者： JR. Moreira , M. Eagle , OJ. Gillespie , A. Davidson , FHC. Marriott
DOI: 10.1590/S1519-69842009000500017
关键词: Fertility 、 Biology 、 Cosine curve 、 Multinomial distribution 、 Demography 、 Reproduction 、 Ecology 、 Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris 、 Mammal 、 Gestation
摘要: A model was constructed to predict monthly birth probabilities using mammalian fertility data. We used a sample of 147 female capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) hunted on farm Marajo Island, Brazil. In the each month treated as multinomial with six cells representing possible reproductive states (five months gestation). hypothesis test carried out see whether cosine curve would fit probabilities. The results offer no support for seasonal component (F2,9 = 1.84, P 0.21), whereas from direct census do (F3,23 87.29, < 0.01). Some hunting techniques were biased towards killing pregnant females (chi(2)1= 7.2, P< 0.01), thereby spreading reproduction throughout year 0.21). remained powerful predictive tool be data long are not females.
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