Climate Change and Winter Wheat Management: A Modelling Scenario for South-Eastern England

摘要: Crop models are useful tools for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. The dynamic crop-growth model, CERES-Wheat is used to examine management responses, including yield, under six scenarios years 2025 and 2050 Estate Imperial College at Wye, Kent, U.K. Sensitivity analysis shows a dry matter yield decrease in response increases temperature alone. was then constrained assess performance water-limited production with different soils, results show that grain actually increases, largely due CO2 fertilisation leading increased rates photosynthesis. Different practices (planting dates nitrogen application) were applied find best adaptation strategies. In general, `early' sowing (10th September) had highest simulated `late' November) lowest. For soils tested, sustained obtained from Hamble (silt loam) compared either Fyfield (sandy) or Denchworth (clay). Adding other fertilisers would likely be necessary take full advantage fertilisationeffect compensate, some cases, losses caused by where water shortage becomes serious.