Real-Time Track Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Using the ARW Model
作者： Krishna K. Osuri , U. C. Mohanty , A. Routray , M. Mohapatra , Dev Niyogi
关键词: Meteorology 、 Indian ocean 、 Cyclone 、 Track (rail transport) 、 Environmental science 、 Stage (hydrology) 、 Tropical cyclone 、 Climatology 、 Monsoon of South Asia 、 Intensity (heat transfer) 、 Tropical cyclone forecast model
摘要: The performance of the Advanced Research version Weather and Forecasting (ARW) model in real-time prediction tropical cyclones (TCs) over north Indian Ocean (NIO) at 27-km resolution is evaluated on basis 100 forecasts for 17 TCs during 2007‐11. analyses are carried out with respectto1)basinsofformation,2)straight-movingandrecurvingTCs,3)TCintensityatmodelinitialization, 4) season occurrence. impact high (18 9km) TC also studied. Model results indicate that mean track forecast errors (skill reference to persistence track) NIO were found vary from 113 375km (7%‐51%) a 12‐72-h forecast. showed right/eastward slow bias movement. more skillful when initialized intensity stage severe cyclone or greater than lower. efficient predicting landfall location time. higher-resolution predictions yield an improvement error Basin by about 4%‐10% 8%‐24%, respectively. 9-km be accurate recurving ;13%‐28% 5%‐15% compared 27- 18-km runs, runs improve 15%‐40% predictions. This study highlights capabilities operational ARW monsoon region continued need high-resolution models.
harvard.edu
ncmrwf.gov.in 
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