Uncertainty and the Assessment of Extinction Probabilities

摘要: A proper assessment of the probability early collapse or extinction a population requires consideration our uncertainty about crucial parameters and processes. Simple simulation approaches to consider only single set parameter values, but what is required all more less plausible combinations parameters. Bayesian decision theory an appropriate tool for such assessment. I contrast standard (frequentist) simple regression problem. use these results calculate three data sets relating Palila, Laysan Finch, Snow Goose. The imply much higher risk than maximum likelihood methods. This difference due large probabilities certain values that are in light data. Because simplifying assumptions, not directly applicable Nevertheless they similar methods based upon point estimates will grossly underestimate collapse.