Adaptive Management, Population Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis for Assessing the Impacts of Noise on Cetacean Populations

摘要: Population modeling is now widely used in threatened species management and for predicting the impacts benefits of competing options. However, some argue that results models must be with caution, particularly when data are limited. This important, as even simplest would generally require more (and knowledge) than available order to have complete confidence model predictions. In particular, population often suffer from a lack on demographic rates, spatial distribution, dispersal, responses, habitat correlations magnitude temporal variations. A number authors identify behavioral physiological responses animals anthropogenic noise. Assessing level noise cetacean populations essential understanding how future viability marine mammal populations. assessment will challenging due difficulties associated identifying clear link between impacts, observing measuring changes parameters long lag-times over which manifest long-lived species. The urgency conservation situation many these socially important demands immediate action, despite pervasive uncertainty. Adaptive provides coherent framework action continuous improvement under I review elements adaptive discuss role context. Bayesian approaches enhancing inferential power reducing uncertainty parameter estimation. then characterizing irreducible Monte Carlo methods sensitivity analysis conclude brief discussion formal decision tools assist making severe propose urgently needed should not postponed instituting plan learning.