The evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: A Kalman filter application

摘要: Abstract In South Africa, the electricity mismatch of supply and demand has been major concern. Additional to past problems, 2008 crisis made solution crucial after its damaging consequences economy. The disagreement on need continuous price hikes worsens situation. To contribute recent debate, this paper proposes a time-varying elasticity for electricity; sensitivity consumption fluctuations changes throughout years. main purpose study is estimation in Africa during period 1980–2005 by employing an advanced econometric technique, Kalman filter. Apart from decreasing effect prices (−71.8% 1990s −94.5% 2000s average), our results conclude important finding: higher (for example 1980s) consumers fluctuations. Thus, further increases may lead behaviour consumers, focusing their efforts improving efficiency levels introducing demand-side management techniques or even turning other sources – cheaper energy.