The occurrence of floods and the role of climate variations from 1880 in Calabria (Southern Italy)
作者： M. Polemio , O. Petrucci
DOI: 10.5194/NHESS-12-129-2012
关键词: Flood vulnerability 、 Long period 、 Flood myth 、 Natural hazard 、 Climate change 、 Environmental science 、 Climatology 、 Precipitation 、 Climatic data 、 Period (geology)
摘要: Abstract. In this paper, we present a methodological approach based on comparative analysis of floods that occurred in wide region over long period and the climatic data characterising same period, focusing climate trend. The method simplifies several time series by defining some indexes (e.g. monthly, bi-monthly, ... m-monthly precipitation, temperature, wet days precipitation intensity monthly flood number) can be used to study phenomena such as are characterised spatial temporal variability. was investigate potential effect variation damaging tested for Calabria (Italy) using historical from 1880 2007. results showed number correlated with days, daily intensity. following trends were recognised: decreasing almost constant intensity, increasing linearly floods. A second-order polynomial trend slight decrease since seventies, which might explained favourable conditions during and/or awareness vulnerability.
harvard.edu
core.ac.uk
sci-hub.st 参考文章(63)
Henri Theil, A Rank-Invariant Method of Linear and Polynomial Regression Analysis Springer Netherlands. pp. 345- 381 ,(1992) , 10.1007/978-94-011-2546-8_20
Mariano Barriendos Vallve, Javier Martin-Vide, Secular Climatic Oscillations as Indicated by Catastrophic Floods in the Spanish Mediterranean Coastal Area (14th–19th Centuries) Climatic Change. ,vol. 38, pp. 473- 491 ,(1998) , 10.1023/A:1005343828552
Gerardo Benito, Andrés Díez-Herrero, María Fernández de Villalta, Magnitude and frequency of flooding in the Tagus Basin (Central Spain) over the last Millennium Climatic Change. ,vol. 58, pp. 171- 192 ,(2003) , 10.1023/A:1023417102053
A. Verwey, J. A. Cunge, F. M. Holly, Practical aspects of computational river hydraulics ,(1980)
H. Ibbeken, R. Schleyer, R. Valloni, Source and Sediment: A Case Study of Provenance and Mass Balance at an Active Plate Margin (Calabria, Southern Italy) ,(1991)
Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Ilan Kelman, An Analysis of the Causes and Circumstances of Flood Disaster Deaths Disasters. ,vol. 29, pp. 75- 97 ,(2005) , 10.1111/J.0361-3666.2005.00275.X
Sujata Gupta, Akram Javed, Divya Datt, Economics of Flood Protection in India Natural Hazards. ,vol. 28, pp. 199- 210 ,(2003) , 10.1023/A:1021142404009
M. Mudelsee, M. Börngen, G. Tetzlaff, U. Grünewald, Extreme floods in central Europe over the past 500 years: Role of cyclone pathway “Zugstrasse Vb” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. ,vol. 109, ,(2004) , 10.1029/2004JD005034
Michele Brunetti, Letizia Buffoni, Franca Mangianti, Maurizio Maugeri, Teresa Nanni, Temperature, precipitation and extreme events during the last century in Italy Global and Planetary Change. ,vol. 40, pp. 141- 149 ,(2004) , 10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00104-8
O. Petrucci, M. Polemio, Flood risk mitigation and anthropogenic modifications of a coastal plain in southern Italy combined effects over the past 150 years Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. ,vol. 7, pp. 361- 373 ,(2007) , 10.5194/NHESS-7-361-2007